Like Deja Vu

Another year, another match win for Magnus Carlsen! But there were some differences this time around I suppose…

In both Games 10 and 11, Anand managed to exert pressure on him in the middlegame, but in both, he lost his composure at key moments and either bailed out to a draw (in Game 10) or played some coffeehouse style moves (in Game 11) to cut through some of the tension.

In Game 10, Carlsen played into a pretty theoretical Grunfeld line (and again, my friend Dan Malkiel somehow called this opening choice … although it certainly doesn’t seem and didn’t look like the right choice to me!) and was put under some pressure after the initial opening moves.

In the following position, it’s pretty clear what each side’s pluses and minuses are:

For White, he’s got the d6-pawn and the bishop pair. For Black, he’s got the queenside majority and a nice bishop on d4.

On the downside for White, his rooks don’t have any obvious way into the position (besides the e-file). And for Black, he’s got two pieces that are way out of play with his …Na6 and …Ra8.

So Magnus started with 23…Nb4 (if 23…Re8, both 24.a3 Nb8 25.Rb1 playing to dominate the knight, or 24.Rfe1 — that e-file! — are clearly better for White). But instead of playing to improve his pieces, Anand chose the passive 24.Rd2, ceding the e-file immediately to Black. After 24…Re8, Magnus said he knew he was out of trouble. But instead after 24.a3 Nc6 25.Rfe1, Black still has real challenges to overcome (and possibly 24.Rfe1 is good too).

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Ban the Berlin!

Well that was quick. After 20 moves and only about an hour, Game 9 was drawn.

I didn’t think Anand would (or should) play the Berlin, but unlike Game 7 where Magnus was the one with the new plan in the endgame, this time it was Anand who got his novelty in first with an improvement over a 2-year old Dominguez – Ponomariov game.

In the above (already rare) position, Anand played 13…Bb7. It’s already rare because after Magnus’s rare 11.Ne2 (4th most common move there), Anand’s 11…b6 is clearly second in popularity to 11…Be7.

I don’t know much about the Berlin (I’ve played into it once as White – a win vs GM Zhang Zhong in 2002 – and once as Black against a 2500 IM in 2010), but I almost wish that Kramnik hadn’t revived it in 2000 … 1.e4 seemed so much more interesting before the Berlin came along.

Anyway, on the one hand, it’s a good result for Magnus as he inches closer to the 6.5 points needed to retain the title, but as I wrote yesterday, a quick draw isn’t so bad for Anand either. With the games being on a Black-White pair from his standpoint now, he has more time to prepare for his White game and more energy saved for exerting pressure in that White game. But if he doesn’t win tomorrow, then he really does need to liven things up in Game 11.

For Magnus’s part, I’m a bit surprised he went back into the Berlin endgame today. Maybe he had another fresh idea planned, but otherwise, the 4.d3 line he chose in Game 2 seems very much suited to his style. He’d get a position where there are many ways to proceed (so you can’t prepare for everything) and where he can simply try to wear down his opponent little by little. He has to be favored over Anand in those kinds of positions. Probably he did have some new idea in mind, because he was the first to deviate from Game 7 where he applied a lot of pressure in a main-line after 11.Bf4, and he deviated with a move that is not considered all that testing at the top it seems. Match strategy and opening preparation!

As for tomorrow’s opening predictions … I suggested a 4…Bb7 QID yesterday, but I want to say that Anand won’t play 3.Nf3 or 3.g3 if the typical moves 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 show up. That leaves a Nimzo of some sort (maybe the 4.f3 Nimzo which Magnus has struggled against, but has almost certainly studied in depth for this match), or something else entirely (like the Scotch after 1.e4 e5). Either way, I think Anand needs to get some new idea in first to have real winning chances because if he’s surprised like in Game 8 (in the 5.Bf4, 6…c5 QGD), I’m not sure he’ll press all that well.

And Down the Stretch Comes Carlsen

Another 4 games down, but this time Magnus emerges +1 for a 4.5 – 3.5 lead. Based on this set, it looks like the match is slipping away from Anand, but stranger things have happened.

Game 5

In an objective sense, this didn’t feature Anand’s best chance out of these 4 games (Game 6 did), but it was the one where he should have gotten more out of the game.

In a QID sideline that my friend Dan Malkiel has actually been talking about for a while, Anand still managed to get a pleasant edge. But just as he had a chance to turn the screws in the endgame, he went pawn grabbing (or material equalizing) too quickly and released all the pressure.

Instead of 26.Rxa7, both 26.Kg2 and 26.Rc7 were more testing. The point of 26.Kg2 is that White still threatens the a7-pawn, but also has the tactical trick of 27.Bxf7! Rxd1 28.Bh5/Bb3+, restoring material equality with the better endgame. The idea of 26.Rc7 is to restrict the offsides …Na5 first, and then only play 27.Kg2 to set up the same tactical idea. As it was, after 26.Rxa7 Nc6, White can’t maintain the pressure on the queenside/7th rank, and the game petered out to a draw very quickly.

I’m not sure Magnus would have gotten the same plus from the opening (I doubt it), but I have no doubt that if colors were swapped at this point, he’d have made Black sweat a lot more than Anand did. It was especially strange since the press conference suggests that he did see both alternatives, so I don’t really understand why he didn’t try one. To win the match, he’ll almost certainly have to do more than convert on +/- positions.

Can an Old Tiger Change His Stripes?

Another year, another World Championship match for Anand. At this point, he’s played World Championships in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014 (all but the first of those being matches).

After last year’s debacle in the World Championship, I wrote that I saw retirement in the near future for him. I even gave interviews to the same effect … But I was quite wrong about that, and I was quite wrong in my prediction that he wouldn’t do well in the Candidates Tournament. Not only did he do well, but he qualified for a rematch with Magnus!

Still, despite that win and another tournament win in Bilbao in the fall, I wasn’t holding out a lot of hope for him in this match. Given his improved form and Magnus’s more inconsistent form this year, I thought it’d be a more competitive bout than last year’s match. But despite that, I had in mind +2 for Magnus with 0 wins for Anand.

I’ll try and sweep the rug over those foolish predictions for now …

Like last year’s match, we’re at a 2-2 tie after 4 games, but the 4 games this year have been quite different than last year’s set.

Game 1

First off, I was happy to see Anand play 1.d4 instead of the 1.e4 he essayed for most of last year’s match. For all my bad predictions this year, I did write this last year:

“As White, I don’t think Anand can play 1.e4 and hope to make headway versus the Berlin. What does that leave? I don’t 1.c4 will be a good option for him, so 1.d4 is what I’d expect to see.”

A 5.Bd2 Grunfeld got interesting in a hurry and while Magnus was allowed to press near the end, Anand’s defenses held. Magnus played quite well to defuse White’s initiative and in his trademark fashion, pounced on minute inaccuracies to generate real pressure.

In the following position, he played 42…Re2 when a lot of postgame commentary focused on 42…Re3 (threatening 43…Rxa3+ 44.Kxa3 Qb3#!). The analysis of 43.Rd7+ Kh6 44.Rxb7 Rb3 45.Rxb3 axb3+ 46.Ka1 Qxh2 seemed to dominate the proceedings, maybe because many engines like the idea of winning a pawn in the short-term, even though White’s king is horribly placed and his queen is tied to the 1st rank. I think that many claimed Magnus missed a win here on the basis of this, but it’s always easier if your opponent doesn’t resist very much.

Match and Rematch Stats

The 2014 Candidates Tournament is in the books, and as you probably know, Anand took 1st place! In so doing, he set up a rematch with Magnus Carlsen (currently scheduled for end of this year), the first World Championship rematch since Kasparov-Karpov in 1990.

He’s also the first ex-Champion to re-qualify via a Candidates Cycle (tournament or match format). There’ve been plenty of rematches in the past, but most were via an automatic rematch clause that most Champions enjoyed from the 1930s through the 1980s.

Also, since then, I’d say the chess world has generally advanced at a faster pace and so if you were Champion and then lost the title, it was probably a sign that your time was up rather more than it used to be in the 1950s, for example.

Anyway, sometime last summer, after seeing Anand beat Topalov in Norway, I became interested in figuring out how World Championship match opponents did against each following their match. I resurrected that old analysis and then added some stuff in for rematches. Here’s what I found …

Pew! Pew! Pew!

After Kasparov’s retirement, there doesn’t seem to have been much sniping among more than just a couple top players. The one that sticks out was the Kramnik – Topalov match of 2006, but outside of those two, there haven’t been many shots fired I think. If the past month or two are any indication, that’s about to change!

Back in February, Nakamura went on the record in New In Chess that he felt that he is “the biggest threat to Carlsen.” That was the soundbite quote, but there was a bit of nuance in that he really was referring to long-term threat.

He further tempered that in a subsequent interview that can be read here (with help from Google Translate for most of us I imagine) where he says:

“Aronian’s probably a bigger threat than me right now, but outside of him I am right behind. I have a chance. If I do not have confidence that I can beat him, what’s the point of playing then?”

This all happened after Magnus’s Bay Area visit and I also don’t get NIC, so it’s not like I could ask about this, but the 2nd interview above has a shot of Carlsen and Nielsen walking to the Zurich tournament hall with this reaction – who knows if they’re joking about the magazine, but it’s quite the coincidental shot if not!

Then this happened at Zurich.

Float Like a Butterfly

Game 2 was also a draw, a few more moves compared to Game 1 but relatively quicker in real time. The Caro-Kann makes sense to me for Carlsen, as Anand’s generally direct style leads to a lot of draws against it, unlike say his record against various Sicilian lines or Closed Lopez lines where he’s got more room to work. Still, I don’t think Magnus is going to remain stationary (at least with the Capablanca Variation of the Caro) if Anand plays 1.e4 in Game 4. Apparently, Anand doesn’t particularly mind the Berlin and Magnus decided not to enter it either, both of which are real surprises to me. Either way, though, I still don’t think 1.e4 is the way to go for Anand in this match.

What was a bit disappointing for me was that Anand won a game in this line earlier in the year (against Ding Liren), but while he varied first with 14.0-0-0 (pretty much the only move ever played it seems, as opposed to the 14.Qe2 he played in that one game), he didn’t have anything new after that.

(FEN: r4rk1/pp2bpp1/2p1p2p/3qP3/3PQ2P/2P5/PP1B2P1/2KR3R w - - 0 18)

The critical moment it seems – Anand considered 18.Qg4, but he went with the quiet 18.Qxd5 and a draw was agreed not too long afterwards with a repetition.

Frankly, the position after 18.Qg4 doesn’t seem all that dangerous for White. Magnus might have been cagey with his “I was planning to play 18…Kh7” instead of the established sequence of 18…f5 19.Qg6 Qxa2 20.Bxh6 Rf7. Established as in it was worked out to a draw in a recent correspondence game, which is good enough for me.

From the Peanut Gallery

Well, that was interesting – a 16-move draw in the first game of the Championship match.

It was a Reti (an opening I suggested was quite likely, but frankly I didn’t expect it in Game 1) turned Fianchetto Grunfeld, but one that was quite harmless after the shockingly ignored 9…dxc4! 10.bxc4 Nb6 after the following position was reached:

(FEN: r2q1rk1/pp1nppbp/2p2np1/3p1b2/2PP4/1PN2NP1/PB2PPBP/R2Q1RK1 b - - 0 9)

After the subsequent 11.c5 Nc4 12.Bc1 Nd5 13.Qb3 Na5 14.Qa3 Nc4 15.Qb3 the game was drawn with one more repetition:

Vinastradamus

Anyway, back to prognosticating. I’ll go out on a limb and say: Anand will win the match (possibly in tiebreaks), he will use both 1.e4 and 1.d4 as white, and will largely use a Nimzo move order of 1…Nf6 and 2…e6 as Black against 1.d4.

– Vinay Bhat, before the Anand-Gelfand World Championship Match in 2012

Not a bad prediction, if I may say so myself. The Nimzo move order didn’t quite come true for much of the match, as he only played it twice as opposed to the Semi-Slav four times in the regular portion. However, Anand did win in tiebreaks, so that’s not so bad.

In that post, I also wrote “Either way, I think this [the Gelfand one] is the last World Championship that Anand can win, so if he has to pass the baton, I’d rather it go to one of those two (Carlsen or Aronian) than to anybody else.”

Some time has passed since then and Anand definitely has been making some improvements in late 2012 and through much of 2013, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to offset Magnus’s simply better form now. So my brain says +2 for Magnus (6.5 – 4.5, over in 11 games), and I have some worries that it’ll be a bit like the Kasparov – Kramnik match from 2000 in that Kasparov made no headway really and was never in the driver’s seat. In fact, Kasparov was somewhat lucky that the score only ended as +2 for Kramnik and didn’t even seem to be fighting in some of the games.

That said, I’ve always been an Anand fan and I’m hoping for a great match. I think there’s a pretty short list of people who – at the height of their powers – could play with Magnus when Magnus is in best form (or whatever 2870 buys you these days). Anand is one of them, and if he can get himself back into physical and mental shape, then who knows.

Some of my colleagues have been asking me more about chess recently – some even showing up to the USCL games at the Mechanics Institute which is just a few blocks from our office. One analogy that I tried to make was that this is a bit like LeBron and Kobe going at it one-on-one now, with Magnus as the younger, stronger, and better player, but Kobe as the aging and wounded “Lion in Winter” who can still put together a brilliant performance but can also turn in a real clunker from the field as well.

Guess Who’s Back? Back Again

“You have power over your mind – not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.”

– Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

Your blogger-in-hiding hopes to make a return over the next few weeks, partly to write about the upcoming Anand – Carlsen match, but also because I’ve been playing a few games again in the US Chess League!

For now though, I refer you to the following: http://youtu.be/g_6memS77L8?t=8m1s

I heard about this video from Dennis Monokroussos’s blog (The Chess Mind) and the stretch he refers to in that entry is pretty amazing to watch. Start around 8 minutes in and you’ll see Karpov fidgeting a bit, but pretty calmly resigning and losing the Championship Match in 1987.

I’ve definitely reacted worse to some losses, but maybe given the adjournment break and some time to consider the sizable audience watching, I might have not completely embarrassed myself in his shoes. But not only does Karpov shake hands and sign the scoresheets, he calmly puts his pen in his jacket pocket and starts analyzing the endgame with Kasparov!

Gelfand’s no slouch in the upstanding-citizen department, but when he lost to Anand in the Championship tiebreaks last year, he shook hands, said a few words of congratulations, and then got up and left. No hanging around to figure out where he might have gone wrong or to look at some alternatives. Pretty normal if you ask me, but Karpov reacts like he’s just lost a casual weekend game.